[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051940 
KSZ000-NEZ000-052115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL NEB/NCENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051940Z - 052115Z

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NCENTRAL KS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE BEFORE 21Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF A SWD MOVING TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL NEB. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A WW BEFORE 21Z.

LATEST VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF
THE HYS/RSL AREA. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WAS FORMING ALONG A SWD
MOVING TROUGH ALONG I-80 OVER SCENTRAL NEB. CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA
REMAINS WEAK AND THUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THUNDERSTORMS IS
UNCERTAIN. THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA WAS
SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS/SHEAR WITH AREA PROFILERS INDICATING FROM 15 TO 20
KTS...CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR LOW CENTER OVER NCENTRAL
KS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE COVERAGE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. LACK OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGER LIVED SEVERE
MCS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38799952 39259966 40020000 40419999 40659909 40559828
40219775 39319787 38689841 

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