[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051934 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-052130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...SW KS THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051934Z - 052130Z

STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THIS AREA
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN NM THROUGH
EXTREME SERN CO AND INTO SW KS. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING S OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN UPPER 50S UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS.
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEPARATELY ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT VEERING
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 6 KM...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

..DIAL.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

34040113 34180228 35240350 36160322 36970162 37840007
37419920 36689958 35599988 34710000