[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051921 
MTZ000-IDZ000-052115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT...NRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051921Z - 052115Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 20Z OVER NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT. OVERALL
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT FIRST...UNTIL CONVECTION INTERACTS
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL MT. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE 21Z.

CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE BITTEROOT MTNS
OF FAR NRN ID WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WAS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS FROM OBSERVATIONS IN FAR
WRN MT/NRN ID INDICATE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. COMBINED
WITH 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG MID LEVEL JET
AXIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN SAWTOOTH/CLEARWATER MTNS ALONG THE MID/UPPER JET AXIS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...AND AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTED OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN MT...WHERE
AXIS OF LOW TO MID 50S DEWPTS MUCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG RESIDED
FROM JUST EAST OF MSO TOWARDS HVR. AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
BITTEROOT CHAIN AND INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS ENCOUNTERING ELY UPSLOPE
INFLOW AND GREATER INSTABILITY. AN ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BECOME AN INCREASINGLY GREATER THREAT AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD
INTO CENTRAL MT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDING OVER THAT AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...

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