[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051756 
MNZ000-SDZ000-051930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD AND WRN/CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051756Z - 051930Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN SD EWD INTO CENTRAL MN
AROUND 20Z. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS UNCERTAIN...THUS WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF HON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW TO
NEAR WINNER...AND ENEWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR STC. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT NORTH OF THIS LOW ACROSS SERN ND INTO NRN MN WAS MOVING SWD AT
AROUND 20 KTS. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ALONE ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER... AS THE FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE
LOW/TROUGH...INCREASING CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH WAVE
PATTERNS NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ARE INDICATIVE OF MODEST
CINH...CONTINUED HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN
THE LOWER 60S SHOULD AID IN LITTLE TO NO CINH ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER ECENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL MN BY 20Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OFFSET
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS/ TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

43509848 44359910 44999906 45369846 45839626 45829494
45759419 45549417 44659455 43539679 

WWWW