[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051645 
LAZ000-TXZ000-051915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX THROUGH SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051645Z - 051915Z

SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN LA WWD THROUGH
SERN TX. THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S IS IN PLACE BELOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7
C/KM. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV HAVE BEEN
MORE PERSISTENT IN SE TX...SO THE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SRN LA. THE MCV OVER SERN TX SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY
E INTO SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT SHOULD
PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY MODEST AND SUPPORTIVE OF
MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE VWP DATA FROM HOUSTON SHOW SHEAR
PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

29799366 29209538 29749559 30419496 31039432 30589225
30239006 29429008 

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