[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042322 
TXZ000-NMZ000-050045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042322Z - 050045Z

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 396 WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD OUT OF WW 396 INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A NEW WW
IS BEING CONSIDERED OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 396.

RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A COLD POOL WAS INCREASING IN STRENGTH
OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM...WHERE 2 MB/HR RISES
HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY AT DHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS
INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY ALONG THE GUST FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG EXISTED TO THE
EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM PARMER CO IN THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE
NEWD TO HANSFORD CO. CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF TCC SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL AID IN SUSTAINING CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS GUST FRONT WHICH
SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW 396 OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS INTENSIFYING LINE WILL
FAVOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 396 FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. INCREASING DIURNAL CINH MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF A SEVERE
THREAT BEYOND 02Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

34470297 35390313 35700240 35730112 36270062 35930008
34590005 34410177 

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