[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042304 
NDZ000-SDZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-050100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH PLAINS...TX PNHDL INTO S CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...397...

VALID 042304Z - 050100Z

CONTINUE WWS TIL EXPIRATION...ADDITIONAL WWS TO THE EAST MAY NOT BE
NEEDED.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/LEE SURFACE TROUGH...CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS THROUGH NARROW TONGUE OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY ALONG/WEST
OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.  MODERATE SHEAR AND CAPE RANGING
FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT AT
LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  

THOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL
JET PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION AS IT
APPROACHES JET AXIS...THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY RELATIVE LOW MOISTURE
CONTENT OF AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS. FAIRLY RAPID COOLING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR BY AROUND SUNSET...AND WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPEARING TO STABILIZE RAPIDLY EAST OF HIGH PLAINS THERMAL
RIDGE...SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT CONTINUE MUCH BEYOND 02-03Z.

..KERR.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...

35680190 36050235 37240227 39320284 41120294 42490244
43780208 45590133 47080110 46829916 45079922 43550004
40750093 38710068 36880039 35790082 

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