[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041929 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-042130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB...EXTREME WRN
KS...NE NM AND THE WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041929Z - 042130Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE MOIST AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL 
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NM...CO AND WY. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM
EXTREME ERN WY THROUGH ERN CO AND NERN NM. EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF RICHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THE LEE TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ARE SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST E OF LEE TROUGH
UNDERNEATH A BROAD FETCH OF MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VEERING WIND PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35 TO
40 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH
BASED...BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE AXIS OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

35480372 39430384 42920454 43940384 42710234 36390151 

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