[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042026 
TXZ000-NMZ000-042230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042026Z - 042230Z

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE SSEWD INTO FAR
SCENTRAL NM/FAR WRN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH OF CQC TO THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. RELATIVE WEAKLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SCENTRAL/WCENTRAL NM TO THE
NORTH OF TCS...AS IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO A
MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXTENDING NWD
FROM THE ELP AREA ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. STEEP LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO LCLS AROUND 650 MB ALONG WITH
CONTINUED TO ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A COLD POOL CONTINUES TO MATURE
OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. CLOVIS 88-D AND VIS IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM GUADALUPE CO SWD INTO THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS WAS SHARPENING...AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE
SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION
OVER SERN/ECENTRAL NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH SELY 15-20 KTS BELOW NWLY FLOW AOB
20 KTS.

FARTHER SE...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MAINTAINED BY UPSLOPE SELY FLOW AND WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AROUND 00Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31820688 32410765 33430777 34130734 34500623 34880503
34240325 32950303 31130318 30700482 

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