[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041913 
TXZ000-OKZ000-042115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCENTRAL TX...THE ERN  TX PANHANDLE AND
FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041913Z - 042115Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE SPS
AREA...AND MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z.
MODERATE MID LEVEL SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MCV OVER
CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL
BY 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CDS SEWD TO STEPHENS
COUNTY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA INDICATE BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS A
BELT OF 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE AREA ON THE SW
SIDE OF AN MCV OVER CENTRAL OK. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT..AT LEAST WELL ORGANIZED
MULTICELL  STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO THE SW OF SPS
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER
OK. NWLY FLOW WILL TAKE THESE STORMS INTO NCENTRAL TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WAS
OCCURRING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCV OVER OK AND/OR
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO GREAT FOR INITIATION TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

32409917 33680039 35090069 36540036 36580006 36169946
34279898 32889710 32249735 32189817 

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