[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041846 
NDZ000-SDZ000-042045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL ND AND SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041846Z - 042045Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
SWRN ND INTO NWRN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED AFTER 20Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING TOWERING CU/CB
IN FAR SWRN ND/NWRN SD ALONG AN AREA OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE NEAR A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF CENTRAL MT. OBS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A NEARLY
UNCAPPED MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PER MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF
CINH. GIVEN LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND CONTINUED DIMINISHMENT OF CINH...AN INCREASING TREND
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS CURRENT
ACTIVITY MOVES CLOSER TO SCENTRAL/ND/NCENTRAL SD ALONG LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY/SHEAR AXIS. RELATIVELY HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

44600140 44970272 45640348 46770334 47240300 47780196
47840047 47389921 46689882 44819884 44349946 

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