[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041549 
NCZ000-VAZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NC THROUGH SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041549Z - 041745Z

STORMS THAT HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN ELEVATED ARE BECOMING SURFACE BASED
IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN NC. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NRN NC AND INTO SRN VA INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NC FROM NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS WSWWD TO SE OF CHARLOTTE. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING N OF THIS BOUNDARY.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MIXING OUT S OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH RESULTING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NC. THIS HIGHER
THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD...AND CONTRIBUTE TO
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY NEAR AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2. RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND LOW
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW LCL HEIGHTS.
THESE FACTORS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR WARM FRONT.

..DIAL.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

35157601 35237715 35207832 35308012 36937847 37097642
35937555 

WWWW