[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040915 
OKZ000-KSZ000-041045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS SSEWD INTO CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040915Z - 041045Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS SSEWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL
OK...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WW.

CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING SEWD AT 25-30 KT THROUGH SWRN KS.
DESPITE MUCAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30
KT...WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN 700-850MB AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED RECENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN/CENTRAL OK IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF 
STORMS MOVING SEWD OUT OF KS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO.

..IMY.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37229986 38049927 38049824 36829735 35219720 34899835
35239915 

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