[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032026 
TXZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032026Z - 032200Z

ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM MORNING MCS ACROSS W TX WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AMPLE INSOLATION AND MID/UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES --
COMBINED WITH 60S DEWPOINTS -- ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. IN ABSENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT...INITIATION LARGELY CONTINGENT UPON SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AMIDST VERY WEAK WIND PROFILES /PER REGIONAL VWPS AND
LDB PROFILER/ SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT.

..GUYER.. 06/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30020077 31249760 31509641 30659570 29849578 28829857
28630003 29150041