[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031645 
NCZ000-SCZ000-031845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031645Z - 031845Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP NEWD.
THREAT IS CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS OBSERVED MOVING NEWD
THROUGH SERN SC. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
SC COAST NEWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN NC. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ALONG
AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S OVER COASTAL
NC. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG THE NC COAST IN VICINITY OF THIS
FEATURE. MOSTLY MULTICELL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

..DIAL.. 06/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

33977792 33957876 34527856 35217594 34687596