[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031824 
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-032030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS THROUGH NW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031824Z - 032030Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH CLUSTER
OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN MS AND SPREADING EWD INTO NW AL.
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

THIS AFTERNOON A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN TN
SWWD THROUGH NW MS AND SRN AR. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS
DESTABILIZING ACROSS NRN MS AND NWRN AL IN WAKE OF MORNING
CONVECTION . MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND PROFILER DATA FROM NE MS
SHOW WEAK FLOW THROUGH 3 KM AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 6 KM. A
BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
SPREAD INTO NRN MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COLDER
AIR...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME. GIVEN MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...MODEST INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS SHOULD REMAIN THE
DOMINANT MODE OF CONVECTION.

..DIAL.. 06/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33259048 34169101 35078866 34378753 33368763 

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