[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031451 
FLZ000-GAZ000-031715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031451Z - 031715Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

THIS MORNING A LINE OF MULTICELL STORMS EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL AL SWWD
THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LINE...HEATING OF
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS 65-70 WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR. OTHER MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE MOB
VWP DOES SUGGEST A BAND OF 30-40 KT WLY FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF AN
MCV IN THE 1 TO 5 KM LAYER IMPINGING ON THE LINE. DAMAGING WIND
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTENSIFY ALONG THE
LINE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST IN WARM SECTOR.

..DIAL.. 06/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

32508462 32758316 31988137 30698157 28958116 28488232
30028360 29758495 30018543 31048497 

WWWW