[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021935 
ARZ000-OKZ000-022130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK THROUGH NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378...

VALID 021935Z - 022130Z

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIKELY NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS LINEAR MCS MOVES
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OK. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. A NEW
WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SRN AND WRN OK.

THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NE OK
JUST NW OF TULSA SWWD THROUGH JUST NW OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND IS MOVING
SEWD AT AROUND 30 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION HAS MERGED WITH AN E-W STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTENDS WWD
THROUGH WRN OK. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG AND WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
CAP FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK. THE 40 KT SLY STORM RELATIVE FLOW AND
WEAK CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING
LINE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
SEWD THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ALONG WRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS WRN OK...MOIST LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER CAP IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...INITIATION AND
BACKBUILDING FARTHER W WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FARTHER E ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT FROM E CNTRL OK THROUGH NW AR. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALSO. DUE TO THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...

35009844 35639906 35939735 36619552 36419446 35829350
34889413 34729658 

WWWW