[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021840 
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SE CO...NERN NM AND THE WRN OK AND
TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021840Z - 022115Z

HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND
NM EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP
FARTHER EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WW
MIGHT BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z. 

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGH BASED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM INTO S CNTRL CO. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND A THERMAL LOW
OVER THE SW U.S. HAS ESTABLISHED A LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. S OF THIS BOUNDARY AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING WWD. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FROM SERN CO THROUGH NERN NM INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

35720412 37180421 38320412 37740251 36050195 

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