[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021742 
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR AND EXTREME SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021742Z - 021945Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN
AR THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN AR
FROM NEAR SPRINGDALE EWD INTO THE BOOTHILL OF SE MO. THE ATMOSPHERE
IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. AS CAP CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
SPREAD SEWD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30
TO 40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA...

34789220 34689427 35349430 36189200 36598990 35708988 

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