[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021626 
TXZ000-021830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE...CNTRL THROUGH NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021626Z - 021830Z

SE THROUGH CNTRL AND NW TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION SEEMS IMMINENT.

LATE THIS MORNING A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO NWWD THROUGH SE TX NEAR HOUSTON...CNTRL TX
AND INTO NW TX JUST W OF MINERAL WELLS. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. MID LEVEL
FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY NWLY AOB 20 KT. HOWEVER...
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VEERING
TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS CAP
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

28919528 29439652 30609820 33299971 33759881 32829775
31279613 29889420 

WWWW