[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021650 
OKZ000-KSZ000-021815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS THROUGH CNTR AND ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377...

VALID 021650Z - 021815Z

STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
SEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FARTHER SEWD FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK.

LATE THIS MORNING AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER S CNTRL KS IS
MOVING SEWD AT 40 KT TOWARD NRN OK. THE STORMS HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN
ELEVATED. HOWEVER...RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE NOW REACHING THE SURFACE...AND STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE
ORGANIZED A COLD POOL WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE SRN FLANKS.
AN E-W SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OK. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500
J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS AS IT
CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

34909747 36049912 37480069 37789891 36549484 35399523 

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