[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021545 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IND...CNTRL AND NRN OH...PA...SRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021545Z - 021745Z

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS MORNING A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN LOWER MI SWWD
THROUGH NRN IND AND NRN IL. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
LOW IN WRN LAKE ERIE EWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NY. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WILL OCCUR IN MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. A COUPLE
OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ONE OVER NW IND AND ANOTHER OVER LAKE ERIE. ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...WEAK CAP...CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE
BREEZES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

39588560 40118595 41018507 41378171 42547583 40297537
39757740 39758073 39598384 

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