[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011943 
TXZ000-012145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011943Z - 012145Z

SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE SUGGESTS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- EMBEDDED WITHIN W/NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WRN OK/NW TX --
WILL SPREAD E/SE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAY RAPIDLY WEAKENING CINH
IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING CU/TCU -- INITIALLY IN ABI/BWD/SEP
CORRIDOR -- OWING TO STRONG HEATING /90S AND LOWER 100S/ ALONG
PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX.

EXTREMELY UNSTABLE MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAIN
HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE IN LOCALLY BACKED
FLOW/HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX --
LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 06/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

30789940 30899961 32189944 33189910 33729831 33499632
32829525 32439510 30489553 29909655 30139822 

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