[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012022 
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA/NJ/CENTRAL-NRN VA/ERN
WV PANHANDLE/MD/DC/DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...367...

VALID 012022Z - 012115Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN
MD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA.

AT 2015Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM WYOMING COUNTY PA
SWD TO RICHMOND COUNTY VA.  THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND
35 KT WITH EMBEDDED SEGMENTS MOVING EWD AT 40 KT.  DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...THIS WELL ORGANIZED LINE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE
EWD ACROSS ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN MD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA
THROUGH 22Z.

FARTHER N ACROSS NY...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY...WHILE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS ERN NY INTO NJ SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS.  HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ALL OF THESE STORMS.  STORMS
ACROSS SERN NY WILL MOVE INTO WRN CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND BETWEEN
21-22Z AND MAY POSE A SEVERE THREAT...BUT SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW TO THE EAST OF WW 367.

..PETERS.. 06/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...

37567506 37567762 37597880 38137937 39887874 42477762
44007705 43997271 41637364 

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