[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011830 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-011930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/SRN IND/SRN OH/WRN-NRN KY/FAR WRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011830Z - 011930Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN
IND INTO NRN KY/SWRN OH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM SERN MO/
WRN KY/SRN IL EWD TO SRN OH/FAR WRN WV.

SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN TN/FAR SERN MO TOWARD SWRN OH
INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH.  SSWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO SWRN IND AND
MID 50S INTO CENTRAL-NRN KY.  PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING
FROM THE MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL IND SWWD TO SRN IL WILL SPREAD EWD AIDING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
 STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN AN UPDRAFT.

..PETERS.. 06/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

40328517 39508217 39098125 38238172 37648322 37668567
36658761 36208886 36558995 37579150 39629041 40438765 

WWWW