[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311710 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-311945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311710Z - 311945Z

RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WW
COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME
FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS
APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME...
IN A CORRIDOR NORTH/NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN SD INTO THE REDWOOD FALLS
MN AREA.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT /STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...IS SUPPORTING FAIRLY RAPID
DESTABILIZATION...AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS PROGGED TO EXCEED
2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.

ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAP...FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED 80F THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME...WITH FURTHER
INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.  SHEAR PROFILES ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ARE
ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 07/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

46729737 46739590 45849456 44469395 43819378 43289453
43379605 44249655 45159739 45549838 

WWWW