[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311632 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-311830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA/ERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311632Z - 311830Z

RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING...AND WW
COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER WARM SECTOR ARE LIMITING FACTOR WITH
REGARD TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL REMAIN
THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS PRIMARY UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO/WESTERN
QUEBEC.  

HOWEVER...IN SOUTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL BELT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH...A
MID/HIGH-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN LATEST IMAGERY LIFTING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FORCING
FOR NARROW CONVECTIVE BAND...NOW SLOWLY INTENSIFYING SOUTHEAST OF
WATERTOWN NY INTO THE WILLIAMSPORT PA AREA.  DESPITE MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...VERY MOIST/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FROM
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

WHILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL...MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SUPPORTS RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT
LIFTS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL BE ENHANCED AS RAINFALL RATES IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BAND INTENSIFY DURING THE 18-21Z TIME ACROSS
THE BURLINGTON VT/ALBANY NY/WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREAS.

..KERR.. 07/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

45057154 44267190 43497249 42657311 41447443 41017543
40987621 41187664 41917576 42577522 43427458 44917392 

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