[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312006 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-312130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/ERN NY//NRN MD/WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675...

VALID 312006Z - 312130Z

...THREAT FOR WET MICROBURST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 675 AND ERN
PORTIONS OF PA...

MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH ERN
PA/SERN NY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM BVT/BGM/SEG/MRB IS
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG.  FAIRLY STRONG SFC RIDGING AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW SUGGEST STORMS WILL PROPAGATE MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN EAST...AFFECTING SRN PORTIONS OF WW 675 AND ERN PA
NEXT 1-3 HOURS. FLOW IS WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH...SO MAIN THREAT WILL
BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WATCH AND NERN PA. SINCE LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...HAIL THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE
GREATER CONCERN.

..TAYLOR.. 07/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

44927100 41777335 39717629 39477829 43257494 45037337 

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