[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272229 
NDZ000-280030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272229Z - 280030Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS S
CENTRAL ND.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT.

SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NW SD
INTO S CENTRAL ND DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  MANY OF THESE
STORMS HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED WHILE BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY
PERSIST LONGER IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ORIENTED NE-SW THROUGH THE BIS
AREA WHERE EXISTING CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO A REGION OF
MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.  SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND A NEAR-SURFACE FEED
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE NE MAY ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEWD
ACROSS THE BIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.

..THOMPSON.. 07/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46200057 46300089 46550111 46770100 47529975 47619927
47409905 47069929 46669992 46300023 

WWWW