[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272210 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-280115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN NM...NWRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...EXTREME SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 272210Z - 280115Z

SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TO
SEWD ACROSS A ROUGHLY 60-80 NM WIDE CORRIDOR FROM PORTIONS DONA
ANA/OTERO COUNTIES NM NEWD TO BACA COUNTY CO.  A FEW DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY BEFORE
APPROXIMATELY 02Z.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF
ISOLATED/SHORT-DURATION NATURE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.  LOCALIZED RAIN
RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN MANY OF THE STRONGER PRECIP
CORES ACROSS THIS REGION.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES DIFFUSE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NM THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING.  SUBTLE LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT --
COMBINED WITH SFC MOIST ADVECTION -- OFFSETS LACK OF STRONGER SFC
DIABATIC HEATING AND CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG.  LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER TCC PROFILER WINDS AND
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...AOB 10 KT FROM SFC THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB. 
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS...CAUSING MORPHOLOGIES TO TREND TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT. 
INCREASINGLY MOIST INFLOW AIR...SLOW MOVING NATURE OF MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR CELL MERGERS MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ON LOCAL SCALES.

..EDWARDS.. 07/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

32730690 35200482 36630392 37750275 37830203 37030202
35910249 34610341 32500562 

WWWW