[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272240 
AZZ000-NMZ000-280045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN AZ

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670...

VALID 272240Z - 280045Z

BROKEN AND NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS WW AREA AND INTO LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.  INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS S OF RIM
CONTAINS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS.
MODIFIED 18Z PHX RAOB IS TWICE AS BUOYANT AS RUC SOUNDING -- 1600
J/KG MLCAPE COMPARED TO 800 -- BECAUSE OF APPARENT OVERMIXING OF RUC
MOISTURE PROFILE.  PRIND FORMER IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THAT AIR
MASS...BUT IN EITHER CASE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAGER WILL SUPPORT
MAINTENANCE OF INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC.  SLOW MOVEMENT AND
TRAIN-ECHO CONFIGURATION OF SOME ACTIVITY -- PARTICULARLY OVER
YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED MOST PARALLEL TO DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW VECTOR -- WILL EXACERBATE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...WITH SOME CORES PRODUCING 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

..EDWARDS.. 07/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...EPZ...TWC...

34021189 34411285 34891341 35201353 35291332 35151280
34551172 34091156 

31980904 33771329 35521329 33740906 

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