[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271834 
AZZ000-272100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271834Z - 272100Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NRN/CNTRL AZ.  MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

VSBL SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION IS INCREASING
ALONG THE MOGOLLON PLATEAU...THE BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
PRESCOTT...OVER THE CARSON/BLACK MESAS IN NERN AZ AND NEAR THE SALT
RIVER CANYON IN ERN GILA COUNTY.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UNUSUAL UPPER FLOW REGIME IN PLACE WITH NWLY
FLOW ALOFT AND RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
AREAS FROM THE RIM NWD ARE LOCATED WITHIN LEFT EXIT/DIFFLUENT REGION
OF THE 50 KT H25 JETLET AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW/MATURE
THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE MAY
ENCOURAGE A FEW DISCRETE STORMS TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE HAIL IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

WNWLY FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY LEAD TO COLD POOLS ELONGATING SSEWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AIDED BY SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE
CNTRL VLYS AROUND PHOENIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BE IMPETUS
FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS INITIATION.  AGAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..RACY.. 07/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

33070910 33521185 33661280 34751377 35881414 36861361
35721248 35141234 35151167 35221062 36841069 36870993
36840925 

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