[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271927 
NDZ000-SDZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND CENTRAL/WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271927Z - 272130Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z ALONG A LEE
TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND SWWD INTO WRN SD. MARGINAL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TOWERING CU ALONG A LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SWRN ND INTO NWRN/WCENTRAL SD. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR
THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INDICATE WEAKENING CINH LESS THAN 50
J/KG AS OF 19Z. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD THIS BOUNDARY HAS
SUSTAINED MID-UPPER 50S DEWPTS DESPITE STRONG AFTERNOON MIXING. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MINIMAL CINH SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG
STORMS BY AROUND 21Z. MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...15-20 KTS...AND
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SSELY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL SD/ND.

..CROSBIE.. 07/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

44270345 45430306 46330222 47480091 47700013 46799921
45009927 43940056 43430180 43390340 

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