[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271805 
COZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-272030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NV...SRN UT AND SWRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271805Z - 272030Z

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.  A WW COULD BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

TSTMS HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING PER LATEST VSBL IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY
OVER SCNTRL UT VCNTY/NE OF BRYCE CANYON AND OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU OF SWRN CO.  REGION REMAINS WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ALONG LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK AND TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY GROW/MATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

STEEP LAPSE RATES...BOTH AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT...WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO POSSIBLY ROTATE GIVEN STRONG
UPPER FLOW REGIME IN PLACE.  KINEMATIC SET-UP...FEATURING WLY FLOW
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...MAY ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP INTO  E
SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
 OTHERWISE...HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

WHILE THE GREATER SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE SITUATED FROM SERN UT
INTO SWRN CO...ACCAS FIELD OVER ECNTRL NV MAY GROW INTO MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL/SWRN UT.  THESE
STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLD THAN FARTHER EAST.

..RACY.. 07/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN...

37151010 37111189 39271638 39771542 39411301 38780980
39770716 37970583 37070581 37130861 

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