[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251905 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-252200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 251905Z - 252200Z

NEARLY STATIONARY PULSE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NRN INTO SWRN AL
WHICH HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.  WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STRONG THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM NEAR BHM SSWWD
TOWARD MOB ALONG WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE.  WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-95F RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AIR
MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG.  WEAK
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH MEAN WIND/VERTICAL SHEAR GENERALLY AOB
10 KT INDICATES STORMS WILL EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS.  DCAPE
VALUES OF 900-1000 J/KG...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9
C/KM IN LOWEST 3 KM ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20F TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS AT THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TO
DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CELL MOVEMENT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OCCUR.

..WEISS.. 07/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX...

32118818 33138800 34118753 34298676 34188587 33738576
32348674 30838737 30258789 30478852 

WWWW