[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251851 
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE-ERN TN...SERN KY...NRN AL...EXTRM NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 251851Z - 252045Z

A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NWRN AL ACROSS
MIDDLE TN INTO EXTREME SERN KY.  ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL,,,BUT LIMITED
COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT SUGGESTS WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED.

STORMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN TN.  STORMS
HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A SLOW MOVING LINE...WITH LINEAR
CHARACTERISTICS OVER NERN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NERN TN.  AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG
OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THE AREA TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN NRN AL.  VAD
DATA AT BNA SHOW WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER CONTRIBUTING
TO MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IN THE LOWEST 5 KM.  ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  IN ADDITION...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES...POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING LINE...AND NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN
ERN TN INDICATE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..WEISS.. 07/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

34258769 35288706 36008644 36618573 37058447 37258331
37048284 36748286 35638355 34978436 34238650 

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