[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252146 
AZZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 252146Z - 252345Z

TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWWD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO
PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ...WITH POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH WW NOT
ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON.

MODIFIED 18Z PHX SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT SFC CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AROUND
1000 J/KG MLCAPE INVOF PHOENIX METRO AREA/INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING TO AOA 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF
INTERSTATE 8 CORRIDOR OF SW AZ. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EVOLVING COLD
POOLS AND E/NE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF 10-15 KTS /EVIDENT IN 18Z
PHX SOUNDING AND LOCAL 88D VAD/ MAY SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION OF TSTM
CLUSTERS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION...MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OWING TO WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50F
SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SUPPORTED
BY HIGH PRECIP WATER CONTENT AROUND 1.4 IN AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
IN ADDITION...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.

..GUYER.. 07/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

33741123 33371080 32931091 32871157 32951241 33251342
33641400 34071406 34521378 34431321 34091205 

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