[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250106 
AZZ000-250300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250106Z - 250300Z

BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS OF 1Z 
FROM ERN MARICOPA COUNTY SSEWD TO E-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED FOR ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS AND MOVE SWWD ACROSS DESERT WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  

00Z TUS/FGZ RAOBS APPEAR UNREPRESENTATIVE OF SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FARTHER W AND SW...BECAUSE OF STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PRIOR CONVECTION.  MODIFIED 18Z PHX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
INSTEAD SUGGEST TSTMS ENE-SE OF PHX WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.  SIMILAR VALUES OF DCAPE ARE
ESTIMATED AS WELL...BECAUSE OF DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER.  THOSE
THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS COMBINED WITH NELY MIDLEVEL FLOW OFF HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD SUPPORT FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF TSTM BAND PAST I-10
CORRIDOR FROM PHX METRO AREA SEWD TO ABOUT 25 NW TUS.  ACTIVITY MAY
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MARICOPA...CENTRAL/WRN PINAL AND NRN PIMA
COUNTIES BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING.

..EDWARDS.. 07/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

33931177 32731093 31681196 32861289 

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