[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242303 
AZZ000-CAZ000-250130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1772
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242303Z - 250130Z

BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS MAY MOVE SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN
YAVAPAI...NRN/WRN MARICOPA...SERN MOHAVE...AND LA PAZ COUNTIES
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 2Z.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE.  WW NOT PLANNED ATTM.

CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN A ROUGHLY 100 NM
LONG...NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE CENTERED OVER PRC AS OF 23Z.  MODIFIED
18Z PHX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FORMING ALONG EDGE OF
COLLECTIVE GUST FRONT AS THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES FURTHER AND SHIFTS
SWWD ACROSS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.  BOUNDARY LAYER IS
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS AREA...I.E.
500 J/KG MLCAPE JUST W PRC BUT NEARLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AROUND YUM. 
DCAPE MATCHES OR EXCEEDS MLCAPE THROUGH MUCH OF PRE-STORM AIR MASS. 
10-15 KT MIDLEVEL NELYS WILL SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION OF COLD POOL
OVER DESERT FLOOR.

..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

35131327 34141177 33151311 34071433 

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