[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241821 
ARZ000-OKZ000-242015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN-CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241821Z - 242015Z

CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM EXTREME ERN OK INTO CENTRAL
AR...AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.  AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSITY TRENDS AND POSSIBILITY OF WW.

AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
THE REGION AND STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
 NEAR 90F OVER CENTRAL AR...RESULTING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG FROM EXTREME SERN OK
INTO CENTRAL AR TO 1000 J/KG OVER NRN AR. VAD AND PROFILER DATA SHOW
LAYERS OF 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR ENHANCED STORM ORGANIZATION.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY FROM EXTREME
SERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CELLS. 
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER THAT WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.

..WEISS.. 07/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...

34969523 35869499 36419399 36439247 36279105 35669060
34809141 34259339 34149505 

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