[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232315 
AZZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232315Z - 240015Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN AZ. WW NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER NNEWD TO GILA COUNTY AND SE-NW ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM.  STRONG INSOLATION /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 100/ IN THE DESERT VALLEYS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  AREA
VAD WIND PROFILERS AND 18Z RAOBS INDICATED ESELY STEERING FLOW OF
10-15 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AZ FROM AROUND PHX AND SWD...WHILE
STEERING FLOW WAS WLY ACROSS THE NRN PART OF AZ PER FLG VAD DATA. 
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED GENERALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SRN COCONINO TO WRN GILA TO CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTIES...WHERE INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL ENHANCE PROBABILITY
FOR MICROBURSTS.  HOWEVER...THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL TEND TO
LIMIT PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

..PETERS.. 07/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

34501264 34501171 33621133 33081125 32241219 31931272
32251364 33581357 34181321 

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