[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231956 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-NERN OK...SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 231956Z - 232130Z

ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK...SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM
CNTRL OK NEWD INTO SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO.  WEAK CINH/MESOSCALE
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAVE PROVEN
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS.  PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT THE
STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR EXISTS FROM NRN OK INTO KS...BUT STILL
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  PRIND THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY OF MULTICELL CHARACTER. AS THE STORMS MATURE AND COLLAPSE...
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF NEARLY 1500
J/KG ENHANCED BY MIDLEVEL DRY AIR. 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLD AND A WW WILL NOT BE
WARRANTED.

..RACY.. 07/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

35639899 37379750 38159432 36809372 35989529 34439820 

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