[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221852 
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...IN...SRN MI...WRN OH...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221852Z - 222015Z

A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED S AND E OF WW 665 FOR CONTINUED
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. 20Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO REFLECT
THREAT FURTHER E INTO IN/OH/KY/MI.

18Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
MLCAPE OF 3000-3700 J/KG.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
AT 6.0 C/KM...BUT GIVEN VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS
ARE STILL STRONG.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE RISES IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM
CLUSTER / MCS OVER NRN IL...INDICATING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD.  VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE
ON SRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ACROSS S CENTRAL IL.  

ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. FURTHER S...NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
MERGE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL / SRN IN...POSSIBLY INTO KY
AND WRN OH WITH TIME.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 07/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

38368767 39558920 40278827 42548724 42728452 41798355
39048353 37988396 37998578 

WWWW