[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221729 
COZ000-221930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO ONTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221729Z - 221930Z

THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DENVER RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT A NELY COLD SURGE IS
MOVING SWWD THROUGH THE URBAN CORRIDOR ATTM.  VWP SHOWS UPSLOPE
ENELY FLOW IS UP THROUGH 1 KM AT CHEYENNE AND DENVER.  BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD BENEATH NEARLY 8 DEGREES C/KM MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND IS MAKING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF BOULDER AND DENVER AND
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLUGGING IN A PARCEL WITH
77/55 YIELDS A SBCAPE OF 1100 J/KG WITHIN A VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE
OF AROUND 50 KTS.  THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE SPC
EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGEST HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS/PING PONG BALLS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  

FARTHER EAST...CINH IS A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT GIVEN A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING...TSTMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..RACY.. 07/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...

39240543 40480548 40990425 40880314 39070320 

WWWW