[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221659 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN IL INTO NRN/CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221659Z - 221900Z

WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL IL INTO
NRN/CNTRL IND. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

THE LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARCING NW-SE FROM THE QUAD CITIES AREA
SEWD TO DECATUR CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD.  THE LINE IS BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE MEAN FLOW REGIME AND IS ALSO MOVING INTO
A DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. 
LATEST PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CINH IS LIKELY ERODING
SUFFICIENTLY THAT UPSTREAM TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SURFACE
BASED SHORTLY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP WLY FLOW
REGIME...TSTMS COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING
LINE SEGMENTS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER MIDLEVEL FLOW
THAN YESTERDAY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW.  BUT...AS COLD POOLS
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN WIND
VECTOR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT.  THUS...A WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

..RACY.. 07/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

41658844 41448485 40808478 39848505 39848846 40218922
41108968 

WWWW