[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202028 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-202230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MT...WRN AND CENTRAL ND...NRN AND
N-CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202028Z - 202230Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT...BUT LOW END SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD. 
ASSOCIATED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IS ALREADY CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT WHERE INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH WEAK CONVECTION
OVER SERN MT.

STORMS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO LARGER INSTABILITY
ACROSS OVER WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST STORMS MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS TO THE
SE FURTHER SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 07/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45060459 48990496 49020042 44899913 

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