[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201916 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-202115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA...EXTREME SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201916Z - 202115Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW APPEARS
LIKELY BY 21Z. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.  

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER N
CENTRAL NEB FROM BLAINE INTO ROCK COUNTIES.  OTHER CU FIELDS WERE
DEVELOPING FARTHER N BETWEEN PIR AND HON. ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE NOW 2000-3000 J/KG E OF DRYLINE AND ALONG
WARM FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S F.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S F ARE
REQUIRED TO ERASE CIN. THEREFORE...MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIATION
WILL BE ALONG DRYLINE AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW WHERE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE LOCATED.  ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS RICHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WARM FRONT WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN FORCING
AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

PRESENCE OF MID 70S F DEWPOINTS OVER SERN SD / ERN NEB AND WRN IA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S F / LOWER 90S F
SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW.

..JEWELL.. 07/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

44669914 44449981 42899957 41709965 41479591 43889573 

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