[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202235 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-202330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...ERN IA...AND SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202235Z - 202330Z

STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM EXTREME SRN WI SWD INTO
NRN IL AND POSSIBLE FAR ERN IA. WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV CENTERED OVER EXTREME SERN MN
MOVING SEWD. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG FROM E CNTRL
IA INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE
CAP HAS WEAKENED AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-6 KM FROM 25 TO 30 KT. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 07/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

41558815 41229061 42389138 43219000 42818819 

WWWW