[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201809 
WIZ000-202015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN WI

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 201809Z - 202015Z

TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND ERN WI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER TSTMS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

TSTMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG 1/ WEAK WARM FRONT AND
2/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS NRN WI.  VSBL
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE CU FIELD BEGINNING TO SHARPEN VCNTY LAKE
BREEZES IN ERN WI.  AIR MASS HAS BECOME ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED AND
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM INITIATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT. 

STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RVR PER
MORNING/CURRENT PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS.  ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR IS
GENERALLY AOB 25 KTS.  THESE MARGINAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE
TSTMS WILL MAINLY BE MULTICELLS AND SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED.  ISOLD
STRONG TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL... BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREATS APPEAR SUCH THAT A WW WILL NOT BE
WARRANTED.

..RACY.. 07/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

42638963 43799031 44529226 45679235 45709083 45428929
43978809 42678811 

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